Men’s 2015 Toronto Pan Am Games Marathon Predictions

July 18, 2015 0

© Copyright – 2015 – Athletics Illustrated

The 2015 Toronto Pan Am/Para Pan Am Games men’s marathon takes place Saturday, July 25th. The field is made up of a total of 19 runners. They are listed below in the order of their personal bests.

The range of personal bests for the bulk of the athletes is between 2:13 and 2:15; however, there is Franck De Almeida of Brazil who has run as fast as 2:12.03 in 2012 in Milan, Italy and more interestingly is Raul Pacheco of Peru who this year ran 2:11:01 in the Rotterdam marathon.

Pacheco has to be the pre-race favourite based on his best, as the number one seed. That particular performance was very recent, April 12th of this year. Some of these athletes ran their bests 10 years ago and are masters or near masters. Pacheco has also run 2:13 three times in the past four years, which demonstrates consistency, some of those races were run in warmer conditions. Toronto will likely have temperatures in the high 20s with high humidity. De Almeida ran 2:12 three other times, all in warm countries, these two should go 1-2.

We cannot discount Canadian Rob Watson, who owns a personal best time of 2:13:29. He has run in the 2:13s twice and has every chance to medal, he is on home soil and will have many people cheering for him, but if the temperatures get too warm, it might come down to athletes who reside in warmer climes.

The two Mexicans are seeded high, however, their bests were run on a very flat and fast course in Torreón, Mexico during the Maratón Internacional LALA. Daniel Vargas has run as fast as 2:13:06. He is another who might perform well in the heat, as he has run his best races in all distances in Mexico. When he has run in temperate climates like Chicago and London, he did not fare as well. Countryman Alejandro Saurez owns a best of 2:13:33, so he is seeded high; however, this is a six year old result again from the flat and fast Maratón Internacional LALA.

The Americans Craig Leon and Tim Young are in the mix with their bests of 2:13:52 and 2:14:40, respectively. Again none of these athletes can be counted out as the personal bests in the marathon are all fairly close, however, between the two Leon appears to have the better range from middle-distance to the half-marathon and the slightly better marathon time. They should go between 5-7, in that range.

The other Canadian in the race is Kip Kangogo from Lethbridge. Based on his personal bests at the distance, he should finish somewhere in the middle, however, he moved to the marathon later in his career and perhaps his best has not yet been seen. His 2:15:35 pb is from Victoria run in mild temperatures, however, the course does roll and has many turns. Kangogo, should be able to mix it up with the two Americans for at least 35-kilometres. This is Kangogo’s first international race representing Canada and is very proud to do so, he may be extra motivated.

Although the marathon is a very difficult distance to accurately predict the finish order, especially in warm, championship situations, the predicted finish order and times are listed below the seeded order list.

Seeded list based on personal bests

Raul Pacheco Peru – 2:11:01
Franck De Almeida Brazil  – 2:12:03
Daniel Vargas Mexico  – 2:13:06
Rob Watson Canada  – 2:13:29
Alejandro Saurez Mexico  – 2:13:33
Craig Leon USA  – 2:13:52
Jose Amado Garcia Guatemala  – 2:13:53
Aguelmis Rojas Uruguay  – 2:14:16
Tim Young USA – 2:14:40
Mariano Mastromarino Argentia  – 2:15:28
Raul Machacuay Peru  – 2:15:31
Kip Kangogo Canada  – 2:15:35
Roberto Echeverria Chile  – 2:15:37
Ubira Dos Santos Brazil  – 2:16:22
Diego Colorado Colombia  – 2:16:48
Segundo Jami Ecaudor  – 2:17:11
Christopher Guajardo Chile  – 2:18:44
Richer Perez Cuba  – 2:19:13
Alberto Orta Luis – 2:20:00

Predicted finish order below.

Raul Pacheco Peru – 2:11:01  – Prediction: 1st 2:14:00
Franck De Almeida Brazil  – 2:12:03  – Prediction: 2nd 2:14:30
Rob Watson Canada  – 2:13:29  – Prediction: 3rd 2:15:00
Alejandro Saurez Mexico  – 2:13:33  – Prediction: 4th 2:15:30
Daniel Vargas Mexico  – 2:13:06  – Prediction: 5th 2:15:30
Craig Leon USA  – 2:13:52  – Prediction: 6th 2:15:45
Tim Young USA – 2:14:40 – Prediction: 7th 2:16:00
Kip Kangogo Canada  – 2:15:35 – Prediction: 8th 2:16:30
Mariano Mastromarino Argentia  – 2:15:28 – Prediction: 9th 2:17:00
Raul Machacuay Peru  – 2:15:31 – Prediction: 10th 2:18:00
Ubira Dos Santos Brazil  – 2:16:22 – Prediction: 11th 2:18:00
Jose Amado Garcia Guatemala  – 2:13:53  – Prediction: 12th 2:18:00
Roberto Echeverria Chile  – 2:15:37  – Prediction: 13th 2:19:00
Aguelmis Rojas Uruguay  – 2:14:16 – Prediction: 14th 2:20:00
Diego Colorado Colombia  – 2:16:48 – Prediction: 2:20:00
Segundo Jami Ecaudor  – 2:17:11 – Prediction: 2:20:00
Christopher Guajardo Chile  – 2:18:44 – Prediction: 2:20:00
Richer Perez Cuba  – 2:19:13 – Prediction: 2:20:00
Alberto Orta Luis – 2:20:00 – Prediction: 2:22:00

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