Defar for the win in the Diamond League meet in Stockholm, Sweden

© Copyright – 2013 – Athletics Illustrated

Perhaps the most interesting race tonight at the 2013 Diamond League meet in Stockholm, Sweden will be the women’s 3000-metre event, which will feature one of the 2013 IAAF World Track and Field Championships best competitors in Meseret Defar of Ethiopia. Her 3000-metre personal best time trumps the field at 8:24.51. The key competitors that Defar will have are Kenyan, Gladys Cherono – a long-distance specialist, Shannon Rowbury of the US, Mercy Cherono of Kenya and potentially countrywomen Hellen Obiri.

Obiri is the 3000-metre world indoor champion and is highly competitive at the 1500-metre distance. In fact, both Rowbury and Obiri are racing up from the mile and metric mile. If either of these women intends to mix with the superior Defar, they will need to sit and kick hard, whereas Defar, coming down from the 5000-metre distance will be best served by running the kick out of the former two, early in the race. Will Rowbury and Obiri take the bait?

Obiri may be able to afford to take the bait and run with Defar early, depending just on how fast Defar goes out. Defar’s middle-distance personal bests are starting to become dated however; she did run a half-marathon in 67:25 in February 2013. Expect Defar to be on pace for 8:25 early.

Rowbury’s personal best at the 1500-metre distance is old, five-year-old, however; it is fast at 4:00.33. She has won at the international level. Is Rowbury in condition to compete? She will likely finish fourth or fifth in about 8:35 but will make a game of it.

Kenya’s Mercy Cherono is young at 22-years-of-age and is fresh off winning a silver medal in the 5000-metre distance – second to Defar – at the 2013 worlds in Moscow. She is a top-three candidate for sure. In fact, she may have the young wheels to compete with Defar, if she is in the mix in the latter stages of the race.

It is unlikely that Kenya’s Gladys Cherono will be able to compete for the win, but she could make things interesting for Defar. Cherono is the world championship’s 10000m silver medallist, so like Defar should take the sting out of the kick of the younger Cherono and Obiri.

Results – see prediction below.

Predicted top-five order of finish:

Defar’s international record:

Olympics

Gold    2004 Athens             5000 m

Gold    2012 London            5000 m

Bronze  2008 Beijing          5000 m

World Championships

Gold    2007 Osaka               5000 m

Gold    2013 Moscow           5000 m

Silver 2005 Helsinki           5000 m

Bronze   2009  Berlin        5000 m

Bronze   2011   Daegu       5000 m

World Indoor Championships

Gold    2004 Budapest         3000 m

Gold    2006 Moskva            3000 m

Gold    2008 Valencia          3000 m

Gold    2010 Doha                3000 m

Silver 2012 Istanbul            3000 m

Bronze 2003 Birmingham   3000 m

African Championships

Gold    2006 Bambous         5000 m

Silver  2000  Algiers            5000 m

Silver 2008 Addis Ababa   5000 m

Silver 2010 Nairobi             5000 m

World Junior Championships

Gold    2002 Kingston          3000 m

Gold    2002 Kingston          5000 m

Silver 2000 Santiago          5000 m

World Youth Championships

Silver 1999 Bydgoszcz       3000 m