Until recently, there were two certainties about the marathon: there was a wall at 20 miles, or 32 kilometres, and it would take at least three races to get the distance right.
For world-class athletes, neither seems to exist anymore.
Fuelling strategies and super shoes are changing the tactics of racing the marathon well.
Next up in the world of elite marathon debuts is 25-year-old Kenyan Agnes Ngetich, who will make her first attempt at the distance at the Valencia Marathon on Dec. 6.
She is already considered the pre-race favourite. That holds even though Ethiopia’s Fotyen Tesfay is entered with a 2:10:52 personal best from the 2026 Barcelona Marathon, the second-fastest performance in history. But don’t blink; records and other fast times were apparently made to be broken. Tesfay also holds the fourth-fastest half-marathon time in history, 1:03:21, run in Valencia in 2024.
Ngetich holds the fastest road 10 km in history. Her 28:46 in Valencia on Jan. 14, 2024, is the current world record. She took 28 seconds off the previous record of 29:14, held by Ethiopia’s Yalemzerf Yehualaw, after passing 5 km in 14:13. Fellow Kenyan Emmaculate Anyango also broke 29 minutes in that race, finishing in 28:57. Anyango was subsequently suspended for six years for doping.
Ngetich’s 28:46 was even faster than the women’s 10,000m track world record at the time (29:01.03). She has run sub-30 several times since, including this past April, when she clocked 28:58 in Lille, France.
Valencia and Ngetich appear to get along well. She set the Kenyan half-marathon record there on Oct. 27, 2024, clocking 1:03:04. She has run the second- and third-fastest times in history and trails only Ethiopia’s Letesenbet Gidey, whose world record of 1:02:52 was also set in Valencia.
On the World Athletics scoring tables, Ngetich’s 28:46 is worth 1317 points, the equivalent of a 2:09:25 marathon. That is faster than Ruth Chepngetich’s current marathon world record of 2:09:56, which is worth 1312 points.
Not long ago, the world record stood at 2:15:25 (2003, Radcliffe). It then fell to 2:14:04 (2019, Kosgei), 2:11:53 (2023, Assefa) and 2:09:56 (2024, Chepngetich).
Some things will have to be in place for Ngetich to run 2:09:25. She will need pacers who can hold exactly the required pace to at least 32 km. She will need perfect weather. She may or may not need serious competition, but she will need to finish aggressively, as Sifan Hassan, Chepngetich, Tigst Assefa and others have done.
She will also need great incentive. What more could someone ask for than €1 million, or about US$1.16 million? She also stands to earn €80,000 for the win.
By comparison, the upper end of a police officer’s salary in Kenya is about US$5,400 a year, and the Kenyan police service has been known to hire distance runners.
A win and a world record in Valencia would mean Ngetich would never have to work again. She could retire from international racing and be set for life.
Expect one of two things: either she finishes in a world-record time or she spectacularly blows up. Based on recent performances in marathon majors and global championships, expect the former.
