Thomas Broatch of Canada appears to be the most likely to win the Marathon Project taking place Sunday in Chandler, Arizona. This is the site of the 2020 race that allowed North American runners to attempt the 2021 Tokyo Olympic Standard during the COVID pandemic.
The race is back five years later. The forecast for race time is for cool conditions with very little wind.
While the Marathon Project organizer has seeded Paul Chelimo first, he is now 35 years of age and hasn’t run his best over a range of distances for several years. His only marathon finish is a 2:18:08 performance two years ago in Spain. The former Kenyan, now American, ran his best over any distance nearly a decade ago in May of 2017 in the 3000m event, clocking 7:31.57. In 2019, he ran the New York Half Marathon in 1:02:19. While a strong athlete over a range of distances, Chelimo may be with the lead pack for 20 miles or 32 kilometres, but should fade in the latter stages. This, of course, depends on how fast the temperatures rise and the tactics that are employed by his competitors.
Top 3 men
One of the most likely to win the race is Canadian Thomas Broatch. While he does not have the fastest personal best of the crew, his January 2025 2:10:35 is as good as any performance in the field, given its recency. Broatch also ran 2:11:35 the year prior. His two fastest times are from Houston.
American Brian Shrader should challenge Broatch. While he has a faster PB at 2:09:35, it has been more than a couple of years since he ran that performance on the fast Chicago Marathon route. The 34-year-old’s upside is that his bests over shorter distances are faster than Broatch’s, so Shrader may not have fully explored his marathon talent yet.
The best resume may be Germany’s Johannes Motschmann. The 31-year-old ran 2:10:39 and 2:10:40. Also, his half-marathon best is a solid 1:01:03 from Houston in January. Motschmann has run 1:01 four times. His personal bests are recent, consistent and of a similar level. Expect Motschmann to win, Broatch to land second and possibly Chelimo for third. Canada’s Thomas Fafard my have a strong sub-2:11 debut.
Top 3 women
As Canadians Malindi Elmore and Natasha Wodak are demonstrating, female athletes have longevity. Well into their 40s these marathon runners are going as fast as anyone in this field. American Sara Hall and Australian Sinead Driver have also run very well as masters. Therefore, 39-year-old American Kellyn Taylor may have a lot to say Sunday in Chandler.
Her lifetime personal best is 2:24:29. While it has been seven years since she ran that time, Taylor did clock a fast 2:27:59 in New York last year. NY does not offer the fastest course. In March 2025, she ran the Atlanta Half Marathon in 1:11:25. She still has a 2:25 to 2:26 in her and Chandler, offering a fast course and good like-minded competition, allows her to win or hit the podium.
American Paige Wood with her 2:26:02 – Wood was seventh at The Marathon Project in 2020. There, she ran 2:28:43. She won the USATF Marathon Championships two years later in 2:26:02. She is now a mom (since 2023).
In January, Wood ran a sub-1:10 half-marathon and in June clocked a 2:30:24. She will need to be five minutes faster in Chandler to roll with Taylor and fellow American Molly Grabill.
Grabill ran 2:26:46 just two years ago in Valencia. The 33-year-old ran 1:11:03 in November in Indianapolis. That performance, likely with training mileage in her legs, speaks to a sub-2:30 without a taper.
For the women, it is not cut and dry who should win and anything can and often does “happen” in a marathon. Expect the three to be challenging the win into the final 5km, but it is anyone’s guess who will prevail. This is most likely the running order of the podium.
