Kipruto, Munyao, Tola to go 1-2-3 in the men’s Paris Olympic Marathon, Bekele, Kipchoge to fight for top-10

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Kenyans Benson Kipruto, Alexander Munyao and Ethiopian Tamirat Tola are the three most likely to medal in the men’s marathon at the 2024 Paris Olympic Games. Given that the weather may be warm and anything can and often happens in global championships, below is the top-10 predicted finish order.

🇪🇹 Tamirat Tola break the #nymarathon course record 2:04:58 pic.twitter.com/emwCDCimyD

— Aman (@angasurunning) November 5, 2023

The 33-year-old Kipruto ran the Tokyo Marathon in March in the time of 2:02:16. That performance is the world lead for 2024 and a big new personal best. For Munyao, he won the London Marathon in April going 2:03:11. Munyao, may have run a minute slower on an equally fast course, but has run the half-marathon much faster at 57:59 versus Kipruto’s 1:00:06, therefore perhaps has a little more talent and at 27-years of age is six years younger. But the interesting athlete in the mix is a late replacement for Sisay Lemma, who would have been a favourite, but he has a hamstring injury.

That replacement Tamirat Tola won the New York City Marathon in Nov. 2023. New York offers a hilly course. The 32-year-old clocked 2:04:58, which is worth two minutes in London, Berlin or Chicago. Does Tola have more strength than the other favourites over the hills?

To be fair, the hills in Paris are much harder than in New York.

Ageism

Age may not matter between the 27, 32 and 33-year-old athletes, however, it may be with 39-year-old Eliud Kipchoge. He is the two-time defending Olympic Champion and former world record holder. Kipchoge will be doing his best to try to become the first ever to win three consecutive Olympic marathon titles.

Meanwhile, Ethiopian Kenenisa Bekele, the former world record holder in the 5000m and 10,000m is going to race as well. He is 42 years old. His best marathon was from Berlin in 2019 where he ran 2:01:41. That performance was just two seconds off of Kipchoge’s world record at the time. Kipchoge went on to run 2:01:09.

Bekele is the winningest cross-country runner in history having won 11 consecutive gold medals at the World Cross Country Championships, taking both the short and long events over the same weekend, five consecutive times. Bekele’s 2:01:41 in Berlin was run in less-than-ideal conditions with rain and wind. Perhaps, he is more suited to tougher running conditions.

The showdown between Kipchoge and Bekele may make for an exciting race-watching experience. Marathon running fans have been denied the opportunity to watch the two go head-to-head in their prime. The question is Kipchoge suited toward a hilly route and do both athletes still have it?

Predicted order of finish