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For the women’s Paris Olympic Marathon, there is, as expected, a very deep field scheduled to race, the fastest of all time. While Hellen Obiri of Kenya and Sifan Hassan of The Netherlands expect to medal, the results are difficult to predict.

While Megertu Alemu ran 2:16:34 in London and Tigst Assefa with the world record shocked the athletics community with her 2:11:53 in Berlin, these are fast courses that are more about time than racing. The two Ethiopians will be tested differently on the tougher and warmer Paris Olympic course.

Former Ethiopian, now Swiss, Helen Bekele, went 2:19:34 in Berlin last year. While this appears to be a fast time, that eight-minute gap leaves a finish well over 2km behind. On Paper, she has no chance. But, anything can and often does happen in the marathon.

Peres Jepchirchir

Peres Jepchirchir of Kenya has to be the favourite at this time. She is the defending Olympic champion from Tokyo and has run as fast as 2:16:16 in London this April. The performance is the world record in a women’s only field (no men), which is how championships are run. Jepchirchir is competitive by nature, she shows up at championship events. Three times she has won a championship half marathon including at the 2016 Cardiff and 2020 Gdynia World Half Marathon Championships and at the 2023 World Road Running Championships in Riga. She told Athletics Illustrated that she expected to win the Tokyo Olympic Marathon years before, and did just that under trying conditions in Sapporo, Japan.

Jepchirchir demonstrated her toughness by holding strong onto her Tokyo Olympic lead in the latter stages of a race where the temperatures got to as high as 34C on the day and with the then world record holder Brigid Kosgei holding on to second. With the usual caveats to do with injury and things out of her control, she will very likely medal and has a strong chance of challenging for gold.

Sifan Hassan

The former Ethiopian, now Dutchwoman, has no peers. She is going to attempt what appears to be an impossible schedule. Hassan is scheduled to race up to three rounds in the 1500m, two 5000m races, the 10,000m and the marathon.

In Tokyo, she won the 5000m, and 10,000m and took home a bronze in the 1500m. In the 2019 Doha World Athletics Championships Hassan took gold in both the 1500m and 10,000m events. During the 2023 Budapest World Athletics Championships, the now 31-year-old went home with gold in the 1500m and 5000m events.

She raced the 2023 Chicago and 2024 Tokyo Marathons in 2:13:44 and 2:18:05, respectively. Hassan stopped to stretch and even walked for a bit in Chicago. Somehow, she won, finishing with a celebration as if she were out for a tempo run. Never bet against her, until now. The schedule just looks too arduous even for her.

Hassan’s schedule

DateRace
August 25000m — Round 1
August 31500m — Round 1
August 55000m — Final
August 81500m — Semi-final
August 910,000m
August 101500m — Final
August 11Marathon

Hellen Obiri

The two-time Olympic 5000m silver medallist is also a two-time World Championships 5000m gold medallist. Her transition to the marathon has gone well, but not well enough to be considered a medal favourite. Considering she won the 2019 Aarhus World Cross Country Championships, she obviously can run tough, Paris will be at least warm — Aarhus, Denmark in February is cold to temperate. Her 2:25:49 New York City Marathon performance is not in the same class as the 2:11:53 to 2:16:16 range of the other athletes even considering the fast, time-trial nature of London, Chicago and Berlin.

One for the ages

An interesting race within a race is the competition between the 40-plus masters-age athletes racing the marathon in Paris. Canada’s Malindi Elmore at 44 and Australia’s Sinead Driver at 47, have made their respective national teams fair and square. They are not too far apart in terms of personal bests with Elmore running the second fastest time for a Canadian last year at 2:23:30 in Berlin and finishing ninth at the Tokyo Olympic Marathon three years ago. Elmore’s entire history is unique, having raced the 1500m during the 2004 Olympics, she had seemed to retire, start a family having two boys and compete in triathlon. Then she began her athletics comeback and has shown terrific range. Pre-super shoe era she had a 4:02.64 1500m personal best. Prognosticators may predict that she would be a clear 3:54 to 3:56 1500m specialist with today’s super shoes.

Driver at 47, continues to hold the Australian and Oceania marathon record at 2:21:34. She only began running in 2010, after the birth of her son. She was age 33. The theory of requiring 10,000 hours to perfect a craft may be at play here. Rather than starting in her teens and peaking at 30 or so, at age 47, she is only two years removed from setting that marathon record.

Fellow Aussie, Lisa Weightman, at age 44 ran the Osaka Marathon in 2:23:15 last year. Now she is age 45. It is by far her best performance through the ages and distances. Weightman earned the silver medal at the Gold Coast Commonwealth Games marathon.

Helalia Johannes of Namibia set the national record of 2:19:52 four years ago in Valencia. She has run a few 2:30-plus marathons over recent years. The question here is, does she still have it at age 43?

Rose Alva Chacha of Equador is age 41 and ran 2:26:34 last year in Hamburg.

While not quite near the 40-plus age, Rose Chelimo (Bahrain) and Bojana Bjeljack (Croatia) are both age 35 as is Epis Giovanna of Italy. Irvette Van Zyl of South Africa is age 37. At age 38 is Mexico’s Margarita Hernandez Flores. She qualified last year in Valencia with a 2:25:54 run. Amongst a few other mid-30s athletes there is Gladys Tejeda of Peru. Like Flores, will living in warmer countries at altitude, give her an edge on race day? Only time will tell. Watching Driver, Elmore and Wieghtman race well into their 40s, may change the perspective of age-related decline over the marathon distance, especially for women — they seem to age better than men in endurance sports.

The Paris Olympic women’s marathon is scheduled to go Saturday, August 10 at 8:00 AM local CET or Paris time which will be 23:00 EST (Vancouver, Los Angeles, Seattle) and 3:00 AM EST (Toronto, New York,).

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